Scenarios

That it is difficult to predict future developments is not something we just learned in the Corona crisis. Fortunately, such dramatic events don’t happen every day, but if we are honest about it, there are many other things that most of us hardly thought possible; just think of Brexit or the election of Donald Trump as US President.

The human’s limited ability to see into the future is not new, but we need to be aware of it, especially when it comes to long-term business decisions. The good news is that there are ways of systematically grappling with how developments happen in markets, industries and society, and thus making yourself “future-proof”. A particularly effective foresight method is the Scenario Technique, a main feature of which is drawing up several varying, but plausible, images of the future. Even if the probability levels of these options are not equally high, it is helpful to consider such “futures” early on, to assess associated risks and opportunities and make the right decisions.

Together with you, we carry out scenario projects, usually over six-month periods, going through five phases each time:

1. Specifying the scenario field
2. Selecting “key factors”: identifying the essential factors that influence development in the scenario field
3. Projecting the key factors: describing their development possibilities
4. Developing software-supported raw scenarios
5. Finalizing and deriving options for action.

Let’s get the future in focus. Together! We look forward to giving you more information on this and other future research methods!