Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis INT
Rest assured: our research will continue to contribute to making the world a little safer.
Dear readers,
Are you sure that you are safe?
Anyone who has followed the news in recent months and listened attentively to the statements of autocrat Putin and his followers in particular is sure to have felt a shiver run down their spine on several occasions. However, it is unlikely to have been the kind of shiver you get in a comfortable movie seat when watching a well-made scary movie. Especially for those of us who experienced the Cold War ourselves, it sounds fatally like a rhetoric of conquest long thought to have been overcome, which sends a cold shiver down the spine. Putin's dreams of a resurrected Russian empire can only be realized at the expense of free, independent – and generally democratic – states. As a compliant tool of the ruler, the Russian military does not shy away from war crimes of any kind or the use of all conceivable weapons, and it is fortunate that the nuclear option has not yet been used on the battlefield. In the war of words, they have long since become one of the usable means of war.
Can the unthinkable become thinkable?
There is no definite answer to this question. The logical conclusion is that only preparation for all eventualities can offer a certain degree of protection. During the Cold War, peace in the form of non-use of weapons was maintained by keeping the risk of major losses incalculable for both sides. The triad of conventional, nuclear-tactical and nuclear-strategic forces enabled a strategy of flexible response and made it impossible for the enemy to predict the response to aggression. The pillars on which the security architecture of the time was built were the real capabilities available and the unrestricted credibility to deploy these capabilities in full for defense. The assured mutual destruction nipped any mutual desire for conquest in the bud. In the end, it was largely thanks to rational thinking at the top of the two blocs that the balance of terror could be resolved.
Unfortunately, the situation today is far more complicated than it was during the Cold War. On the one hand, there are significantly more nuclear powers than there were back then, which considerably increases the opportunities for proliferation. The risk of irrational, fanatical or terrorist forces gaining access to these weapons has greatly increased, but not every "legitimate" owner of a nuclear arsenal can be described as rational either. It is also known from game theory that the number of possible outcomes increases when there are more than two players at the table. The relatively straightforward configuration of a two-sided confrontation has now become a collection of unpredictable players, each with their own, sometimes unknown intentions.
The technological possibilities for building nuclear weapons have also increased since the end of the Cold War. The construction of battlefield weapons with an explosive force between "large" conventional and "small" nuclear tactical weapons is once again being discussed. These "mini-nukes" are capable of significantly lowering the nuclear threshold.
There is another point: the above-mentioned triad has become an ominous quadriga. The major technological developments of recent decades have turned cyberspace into a battleground and cyber weapons into effective means of attack. Modern industrialized nations have become extremely dependent on their digital infrastructure and global networking. For an aggressor, this offers the opportunity to weaken a potential victim below the threshold of a shooting war very cheaply and efficiently to such an extent that the use of military forces is only necessary to a limited extent or not at all. If you look closely, you can observe the troll factories and cyber battalions of autocratic states at work in our country too.
Last but not least: questions about military conflicts – especially nuclear weapons and their effects – have not been particularly en vogue in our society over the past three decades. Much of the knowledge acquired during the Cold War has been lost, and dealing with the associated issues has to be relearned. This is a learning process that must be mastered not only in the military, but above all in civilian society. For what has been true since ancient times has been shown to us once again with frightening clarity in the Ukraine war: in war, there is no division between fighting soldiers and uninvolved civilians. Both are affected and the unprotected population is often hit even harder than the soldiers.
For 50 years, Fraunhofer INT has been conducting research into modern technology developments, including for military applications, disaster prevention, the vulnerability of the digital world to electromagnetic threats and the effects of nuclear weapons.
Rest assured: our research will continue to contribute to making the world a little safer.
This annual report once again provides you with an overview of the numerous forward-looking research results that the Fraunhofer INT has produced over the past year, despite all adversity.
I hope you enjoy reading it. Stay curious and look with us into a hopefully secure future.
Yours sincerely
Prof. Michael Lauster
Director