Defense Technologies Forecast

The Defense Technologies Forecast is commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Defense (BMVg) and generally covers 13 technological future topics per year. These interest-independent analyses of the state of research, future potential and implications for BMVg planning serve to support the contracting authority in its planning process. In 2023, nine individual technologies were analyzed, two visionary future concepts were addressed, and two technologies were subjected to an updated assessment. Three topics are presented here in brief as examples:

Active muon radiography – investigating large objects and structures with transportable muon sources

High-energy particles, called muons, are produced in the atmosphere by the effects of cosmic radiation and can penetrate almost any substance over great distances. For decades, this natural muon radiation has been used to elucidate underground structures, especially in the context of geological and archaeological investigations. Increasingly, muon radiography imaging techniques are now also being researched for applications in the fields of industry and security. Artificial, transportable muon sources with a higher intensity could significantly speed up these procedures, some of which require days or months of measurement. In addition, transportable muon sources would allow greater flexibility in the installation of the required muon detectors. In general, such active muon radiography could also open completely new application possibilities.

The usual procedure for generating muons consists of directing a beam of extremely high-energy particles at a piece of metal with a high atomic number. However, particle energies sufficient for muon radiography can currently only be provided by large particle accelerators. The use of novel laser-based particle accelerators is therefore being investigated for the technical implementation of transportable muon sources. In view of the current advances in such laser-plasma accelerators, corresponding muon sources appear to be feasible in the near future.

Comparable analyses were prepared for the following individual technologies:

• Metal-air batteries – The long-term goal of battery development 
• MXene – Novel 2D materials with a wide variety of designs 
• Small Modular Reactors – Transportable energy supply with high performance 
• 3D graphene architectures – Materials with a wide range of applications 
• Automated machine learning – Creating artificial intelligence efficiently and automatically 
• Bio-hydrogen – Biological production and storage of hydrogen
• Wing-In-Ground Effect Boats – A combination of high speed and large transportation capacity
• Neurosymbolic artificial intelligence – A combination of the strengths of two different approaches

The topics "Future Space Domain" and "Artificial Intelligence in Unmanned Mobile Systems" were addressed in 2023 as visionary future concepts in which the necessary technologies and their maturity are derived from an overarching perspective.

Artificial intelligence in unmanned mobile systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the umbrella term for applications in which technical systems are oriented towards the natural intelligence of humans. The vision described is based on the implementation of AI models in unmanned mobile systems to obtain so-called autonomous systems. These are designed to be broad and flexible in their use and suitable for the autonomous execution of complex missions under the real conditions of an open, dynamic and non-cooperative battlefield environment. This environment is characterized by unexpected external influences and its uncertain and incomplete information situation.

Two technologies already analyzed in the past did require an update, as considerable progress has been made recently. In addition to the "Update: Kinodynamic Motion Planning", the "Update: Electronic Skin" was elaborated.

Update: Electronic Skin

Electronic skin (e-skin) refers to thin, flexible electronics that mimic selected mechanical and functional properties of human skin. For this purpose, sensors and other electronic components are embedded in elastically deformable carrier materials. Through the proficient spatial arrangement of non-flexible components and conductor paths, the insertion of conductive nanofillers or the use of components with intrinsic flexibility, two-dimensional sensors are created that can be stretched, compressed and twisted without any loss of function. Since the topic was originally addressed in 2016, research has demonstrated many new, often multifunctional e-skin concepts.